There are several reasons why the NHL
is suffering from a drop off in offensive production. This is not a "this
year" problem, it actually is something that started in the early 1990's
and has been growing slowly but surely every season. If you look at the stats
from year to year, you will not see a steady path or reduction EVERY year but
you can see the obvious trend. So why has this happened? There are several
factors:
Less teams making the playoffs since expansion
In 1979-80 four teams "merged" into the NHL
from the WHA. That brought the number of teams to 21 and out of that 16 teams
made the playoffs. By the All-Star break it was generally accepted who was
going to miss the playoffs and there wasn't as much pressure on the top 16
teams to push every game. Coaches would allow the players to enjoy a more
offensive game because every mistake was not life and death. The dead puck era started
after the lockout in 1994 but the seeds were planted once the league decided on
mass expansion in 1991, adding 4 teams in two years. At this moment 53% of the
teams make the playoffs, in 1980 is was 76%...
Better goalies - bigger goalies - bigger and lighter equipment
There is no doubt that goalie improvement is the number one
reason scoring is down in the NHL , and there
is nothing wrong with that. If you were to look back at highlights from the
1970's and 1980's, you would laugh at the level of goaltending. You don't see
many week goals slipping behind goalies these days, which was common 20 years
ago.
What you wont laugh at is how much net you can see behind
each goalie compared to what you can see now, which is pretty much nothing. Average
goalie size now is 6'2" 197 lbs, up
from 5'10" 177 lbs twenty years ago. That doesn't even take into account
the new, larger equipment goalies are wearing that weights significantly less
than the equipment worn in the 70's and 80's.
Better players - bigger players
How does better players equate to lower scoring? Easy, they
can be taught to defend and that they have. Team defence has improved so much
in 20 years its staggering. Players are also for the most part bigger as well
as faster. As of 2011 the average size of a player was 6'1" 205 lbs. In
1966-67 players were on average 5'11' and 180 lbs. Bigger, stronger, faster
certainly applies. Players are also closing the gap now faster than ever. Less
time and space for skilled players = less offence.
Rink size
The size of the NHL
hockey rink has not changed (outside of Boston
and Buffalo ) for decades. The
average NHL player is 10% bigger and I would
argue at least 10% faster if not more. The skill players have less room to
work. Period.
The Loser point
The business of the NHL
loves parity. More teams in the race is good for the box office, no one can
deny that. While it may not be good for the on ice product (see point one) no
one can argue the growth the NHL has had
financially in the past several years. The overtime and shootout loss point has
done more for parity than any one single factor. as long as the NHL
stays with the 2-1-1 point
system, there will always be 12 teams in the playoff race in each conference. I
read where Columbus gained 3 points
in the standings from two 0-0 games this year. If that isn't a problem for you
then your system is a mess.
Better coaching - all levels
There is currently more coaching support for Teir 2 players
in Canada than
there was in the NHL 25 years ago. Strength
and conditioning coaches, two or three assistant coaches, goalie coaches, special
teams coaches, and video coaches. What's next, a coach for the coaches? At all
levels of hockey, coaches are for the most part trying to improve skill and
development. The NHL is the only league that
is not trying to improve the offensive game. Instead the NHL
collectively coaches to defend and stifle offence. Defensive scheme's are the
buzzword of the NHL . Years ago you had a
"shadow". If you take a step back from the game and think about that
for a second its sobering. We are privileged to watch the best players in the
world play chip and chase hockey for millions of dollars...
So what didn't work?
The clamp down on obstruction after the 2004-2005 lockout
gave us a nice bump in offence. Most of that can be attributed to the huge
increase in power play attempts. Several seasons later we have all witnesses
the standard slipping and of course the goal output slipped as well. Many also
now feel that the clamp down on obstruction has let to an increase in
concussions and more injuries to defensemen because wingers can now come down
at full speed where as in the past you were able to "hold up" the
players.
To be fair, hooking and stick infractions have been for the
most part upheld and that has helped somewhat. One can only imagine what the
league would look like if they allowed the hooking we saw ten years ago.
The red line was also eliminated after the lockout and has
had little positive impact. To be honest I almost forgot that the rule was
changed until recently I saw a player standing near the other team's blue line
and he chipped the clearing "pass-dump" from the defenseman so they
could make the change. The rule has helped the defensive team more than the
offensive team in my opinion.
The trapezoid was introduced as well and other than making
goalies angry, it had no effect really. For every goal that resulted from a
fore-check that was allowed because a goalie couldn't play it, I would argue
that just many didn't happen from a sharp outlet pass from a Marty Brodeur. Most
goalies now wait for the puck to come to them or get ahead of the goal line.
This has also allowed for more injuries to defensemen in my opinion. They can
take those lines away and save the painting crews the hassle.
Delayed off-side was taken away, and then put back. The
problem with this rule is that if you blow the whistle immediately on a delayed
off-side it destroys the flow of the game. If you allow the teams to do what
they do now, you are letting the defensive team fall back into a 1-4 position of
defence. I read recently an idea that if you go offside, the face-off comes
back into your zone. At first I thought was harsh, but there might be something
to that.
So what else can be done? Coaching is not going away
although that would be the easiest fix. Players are not going to get smaller.
This much we know. But...
Rinks can get bigger. If the players are 10% bigger at
least, why not give them 15% more space to work with? I haven't heard or seen
one person who suggests moving to the IIHF size of rink but just slightly more
room in the offensive zone and slightly wider would make a big difference I
believe. Obviously it would have to be tested and the owners would have to make
a financial investment in that plan. I think its a solution that is 15 years
overdue when the wave of the NHL rinks
arrived but better late than never.
Goalies are not going to get smaller and they are not going
to be able to reduce the size of the equipment either, as it's become a safety
issue as much as anything. With that in mind, nets need to get wider. Taller is
not going to happen due to player safety, but wider should happen as early as
next season. Period. If the shot off a rush comes back into reality, it will
open up the rest of the game because defensemen will have to play different. (Note, the NHL HAS managed to reduce goalie equipment size this year, we will see if it has any impact)
Ditch the loser point or at very least reward a team for
winning in regulation. Critics will say that this will only further add to the
problem of teams clamping down once they have a lead. Optimists point to the
fact that with more points on the line, teams who are losing are more inclined
to "go for it". I'm on board with the latter group but the argument
is there. And to the people who are "traditionalist" who don't want
three point games I offer you this. The NHL
has always been about change, that is their tradition. The NHL
used to play with 6 players per side and didn't allow forward passes. Times
change and the NHL needs to evolve with it.
There has been talk of an NHL
wild card. Why not copy MLB and the NFL, it's not like they haven't done that
before... I don't see this having a positive effect, if anything it may add to
the problem with having even more teams in playoff contention.
The NHL could also look
at some of the tactics the NBA used years ago to fix their problems but things
like illegal defence should be only as a last resort. One thing for certain,
the NHL needs to stop rewarding the
defensive teams. Case in point - a forward hand pass IS allowed in the
defensive zone, but NOT in the offensive zone...
In conclusion, I believe that size is the issue to help
blend some offence back into the NHL . Bigger
rinks and bigger nets would go a long way to bringing the flow of play back.
May the days of stacking 5 players in the slot and blocking 30 shots per game
be in the rear view mirror soon and never be seen again!
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